Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 34.440253 37.252419 40.316621 43.927645 48.098712 52.805413 58.576489
2025-04-13 29.550489 33.129142 37.273772 42.507039 49.057207 57.157535 68.229362
2025-04-20 27.781323 31.962687 37.028571 43.775762 52.791684 64.862453 83.126771
2025-04-27 26.424957 31.018884 36.786038 44.809866 56.147248 72.450503 99.668058
2025-05-04 25.181573 30.035673 36.306833 45.354074 58.767511 79.343119 117.123141
2025-05-11 23.831329 28.768658 35.287920 44.962081 59.868799 84.002342 132.230321
2025-05-18 22.588059 27.534232 34.182457 44.282138 60.364664 87.672086 146.737895
2025-05-25 21.440156 26.343291 33.030850 43.391284 60.358208 90.400024 160.330228
2025-06-01 20.445118 25.296864 32.000678 42.570518 60.329876 93.037963 174.906535
2025-06-08 19.452312 24.197071 30.818535 41.401790 59.546289 94.042614 185.849024
2025-06-15 19.217553 24.144300 31.149439 42.640796 63.131760 104.659766 230.751408
2025-06-22 18.641261 23.569702 30.661985 42.495473 64.157571 110.046402 263.865162
2025-06-29 17.972034 22.851225 29.947768 41.969761 64.509459 114.282180 298.548140
2025-07-06 17.157657 21.888662 28.813594 40.652899 63.176682 114.222326 316.045670
2025-07-13 16.990263 21.865025 29.120708 41.831659 66.989854 128.306371 424.988021
2025-07-20 16.781814 21.766262 29.298055 42.791277 70.512146 143.114166 586.211672
2025-07-27 16.490376 21.526100 29.230974 43.295868 73.131511 156.497722 807.671363
2025-08-03 16.044818 21.030867 28.721305 42.932440 73.724931 163.681821 1020.376048
2025-08-10 15.575935 20.481679 28.095822 42.301692 73.607100 168.454474 1255.641323
2025-08-17 15.097626 19.901369 27.393129 41.474607 72.917242 170.986598 1499.453888
2025-08-24 14.657979 19.367054 26.745050 40.711901 72.299776 173.694525 1829.520765
2025-08-31 14.181272 18.760999 25.954323 39.624688 70.760040 172.318297 2034.676478
2025-09-07 14.132445 18.822797 26.288786 40.777234 75.065737 197.534266 5844.522868